Monday, 9 January 2017

Currency Outlook for weekending 13 January 2017





USD-INR January 

Strategy – Sell AROUND 68.35-68.40. Target 68.00-67.75. Stop loss above 68.65


USDINR continued it’s neutral to bearish trend for second consecutive week. Weakness in the dollar index which drops towards 101.30 after FOMC meeting minutes added some selling pressure and pair retreated towards 67.8775 from the weekly high 68.5150.  



 Technical, sell strategy given around 68.35-68.40 was initiated, and it hit first predicted level of 68.00. On the weekly chart formation of doji candle stick is yet indicating for relatively neutral to volatile trend. 

But, a closing below 23.8% Fibonacci Retracement of 21 Feb to 6 Nov 2016 is creating probability for short term bearishness.   On the Upside, 68.65 will act as a strong resistance and pair would need to break it in order to test 68.85-69.20


Dollar Index – Crucial support 101.60

Dollar index extended fall for second consecutive week and after breaching its lowest level since Dec 15 settled at 102.17, on grew cautious about the health of the world's largest economy post release of dismal US economic data. FOMC minutes which showed the central bank is concerned about a strengthening dollar, and that more fiscal stimulus could raise demand above sustainable levels, also added weakness. 



 


Technically, weekly price action resulted in formation of shooting star candle stick which is indicating for temporary correction. It broke crucial support 101.60 last week which also creating probability for next support levels 101.20 then 100.80. 


On the upside, massive resistance for the week is seen at 103.85 and next bullish move could expect only above this levels


EUR-INR January Future 

Buy above 72.30 Target 72.60-72.90. Stop loss below 72.05
Or
Sell around 72.05-72.10. Target 71.75-71.40. Stop loss above 72.30.

EURINR continued its recovery rally for second consecutive week and settled with gain of 0.37%. Euro zone services’ activity indices and higher-than-expected flash inflation added some strength for the currency.  The recent jump in the Euro has taken place as the dollar against a basket of currencies has moved lower in the wake of a bullish Chinese Yuan. 



 Technical, a strong bounce back from the weekending 18 December is creating probability for momentum gain towards 72.85-73.00.  Further, pair settled above 161.8% Fibonacci Retracement which also indicating for positive trend for next week also. 

 
On the downside, crucial support is seen at 71.20 and break below only could add selling pressure towards 70.85-70.40.



GBP-INR January Future

Sell around 84.70-84.75 Target 84.10-83.65. Stop loss above 85.00

The pound pared back losses as favorable U.K. service sector data which accelerated for a third straight month to a 17-month high in December and weakness in dollar index supported the currency pair.  

As per the sell strategy given around 83.95-84.05 was initiated in start of the week and after hitting first predicated level 83.65, pair witnessed bounce back from 83.5775. 

Technical, on the weekly chart, GBPINR yet settled below its short term moving average and 23.8% Fibonacci Retracement of previous swing is yet creating probability for bearishness in GBPINR. 

 On the upside, strong resistance is seen at 85.10 pair would need to trade above it in order to test 85.60-86.00.



JPY-INR January Future

Sell around 58.95-59.05. Target 58.20-57.90. Stop loss above 59.60.


JPYINR rebounded more than 1.50% from the weekly low 57.95 as investors covered their short term profits taking advantage of the sharp plunge in the greenback.  The greenback extended fall, breaching its lowest level since Dec 15, as investors grew cautious about the health of the world's largest economy post release of dismal US economic data. 

 

On the weekly chart, pair settled below the SMA, which is indicating for bearishness in JPYINR. Further massive resistance is seen at 59.60 and break above only could open the door for upside target 60.00 then 60.65. 

 Else any rise towards 58.90-59.00 could attract selling activities for the levels 58.45-58.20.





High Impact Economic Data & Events Schedule during the week


Date
Time
Currency
Economic Indicators
Forecast
Previous
Impact
10.01.17
 7:00am
CNY
CPI y/y
2.20%
2.30%
Negative
11.01.17
3:00pm
GBP
Manufacturing Production m/m
0.60%
-0.90%
Positive
12.01.17
7:00pm
USD
Unemployment Claims
266K
235K
Negative
13.01.17
5:30am
USD
Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
-
-
-

Tentative
CNY
Trade Balance
345B
298B
Positive

7:00pm
USD
Core Retail Sales m/m
0.50%
0.20%
Positive


USD
PPI m/m
0.10%
0.40%
Negative


USD
Retail Sales m/m
0.50%
0.10%
Positive

8:30pm
USD
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
98.6
98.2
Positive
 


More will Update soon..