Friday, 26 August 2016

USD/INR may trade neutral ahead of Fed Chair Yellen's speech



USD/INR may trade neutral ahead of Fed Chair Yellen's speech


Dollar/rupee ended near one-week low Thursday on likely corporate inflows, while dollar remained weak against a basket of major currencies as investors await Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen's speech at the two-day Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday.


Technical, Since 22 August 2016, USDINR witnessed neutral bearish move and retraced towards 67.0275 from the high 67.3250.   

Recently it broke its previous swing trend line support at 67.06 which is creating probability for the next downside move towards 66.85 and below.   

On the upside, massive resistance is seen at 67.40 sustain trade close only will expect to test 67.65-67.85..

The report said initial jobless claims edged down to 261,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 262,000. Economists had expected claims to rise to 265,000.



EUR-INR August Future

Euro traded up snapping four-days of losses Thursday, ignoring disappointing German data, as the greenback remained fragile ahead of a speech by Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen at the economic symposniy at Jackson Hole on Friday.

EURINR had a range bound move yesterday and after hitting a low of 75.54 settled at 75.67 levels. Intraday price action has resulted in formation of doji candle stick which pointing for indecisive trend in EURINR. 

 Further, pair would need to trade above 76.10 in order to test 76.35-76.65.
 else

sell on every rise towards 75.85-75.95 Target 75.65-75.40. Stop loss above 76.10.



GBP-INR August Future

Pound traded off 3-week high Thursday as investors booked profit ahead of the United Kingdom's GDP data and Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen's speech due tomorrow.

GBPINR has stalled its recent momentum upside move and retraced more than 0.45% yesterday.  On the EOD chart GBPINR formed a bearish harami candle stick which is indicating for bullish trend reversal. 

Hence, sell around 88.60-88.70 Target 88.20-88.00. Stop loss above 88.85

 
On the upside, strong resistance is seen at 89.00 and pair would need to trade above it in order to test 89.35-89.70.




JPY-INR August Future

Yen traded little change Thursday ahead of the two-day Federal Reserve economic symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, wherein Chairperson Janet Yellen is expected to throw more light on the Fed's interest rate stance.

Since 19 August 2016, JPYINR struggling to break its massive resistance 67.10 and retraced towards yesterday low 66.68.  On the EOD chart a similar resistance candle stick is creating probability for the bullish trend reversal in JPYINR.

 However, pair yet trading above its medium term trend line support which is creating probability for the upside move towards 67.50-67.75, pair would need to trade above 67.10 in order to test these levels.

Sell on rise around 66.85-66.90 Target 66.40-66.00. Stop loss above 67.10. 





§  Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today
Time
Currency
Economic Indicators
Forecast
Previous
Possible Impact
5:00am
JPY
Tokyo Core CPI y/y
-0.30%
-0.40%
Neutral

JPY
National Core CPI y/y
-0.40%
-0.50%
Neutral
10:30am
JPY
BOJ Core CPI y/y
-
0.80%
-
11:30am
EUR
GfK German Consumer Climate
10.20
10.00
Positive
1:30pm
EUR
M3 Money Supply y/y
5.00%
5.00%
Neutral

EUR
Private Loans y/y
1.80%
1.70%
Positive
2:00pm
GBP
Second Estimate GDP q/q
0.60%
0.60%
Neutral

GBP
Prelim Business Investment q/q
-0.90%
-0.60%
Negative

GBP
Index of Services 3m/3m
0.40%
0.30%
Negative
6:00pm
USD
Prelim GDP q/q
1.10%
1.20%
Negative

USD
Goods Trade Balance
-62.3B
-63.3B
Negative

USD
Prelim GDP Price Index q/q
2.20%
2.20%
Neutral
7:30pm
USD
Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
-
-
-

USD
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
90.6
90.4
Positive

USD
Revised UoM Inflation Expectations
-
2.50%
-
All Day
ALL
Jackson Hole Symposium
-
-
-




More will Update soon..