Monday, 25 July 2016

Update on Agri Commodity








Soyabean


Support at 3580 and Resistance at 3690---3750

Two consecutive closes below 3580 will take to 3450---3380 mark in days to come else it could test its resistance level of 3690---3750 again

Further upside rally will see only close above 3750 mark

Trade with levels only



Soyaref



Support at 625 and Resistance at 650

Close below 625 will take to 610---604 and then to 590 mark in days to come else it could test its resistance level of 650 again

Further upside rally will see only close above 650 mark

Trade with levels only


Rmseed


Support at 4900 and Resistance at 5050

Looks weak and could test its support. Three consecutive closes + weekly close below 4900 will take to 4750---4680 mark in days to come else it could test its resistance level of 5050 again

Further upside rally will see only close above 5050 mark

Trade with levels only



Guarseed



Made a high of 3980 and now trading around 3850

Now what to expect???

Support at 3850 and Resistance at 4000

Close below 3850 will take to 3780---3730 and then to 3650 mark else it could test its resistance level of 4000 again

Further upside rally will see only close above 4000 mark

Trend still looks positive and could test 4200---4300 level in coming weeks but trade in levels only

3600---3500 will be best trading opportunity in it



CPO



Clearly told to buy around 488---483. It flared and made a high of 524. 

Now what to expect???

Support at 506 and Resistance at 527

Two consecutive closes above 527 will see more upside rally till 538---545+ mark in days to come else it could test its support level of 513---506 again

Further downside panic will see only close below 506 mark

Trade with levels only



Jeera



As expected.... Rally continues and made a high of 19800 mark. We are regularly holding from 16500 mark

Now what to expect???

Support at 19200 and Resistance at 20000

Three consecutive closes + weekly close above 20000 will see more upside rally till 21800---22500+ mark in days to come

Revise stop loss of 19200 on closing basis



















More will update soon...

Gold struggles near 3-week low with Fed in focus






Gold prices extended losses from the prior session in European trade on Monday, holding near a three-week low as the U.S. dollar hovered at a more than four-month high amid renewed expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year.

There is an expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year boosted the U.S. dollar and as investors looked to buy into rising equity markets rather than purchasing safe-haven assets.
A recent string of better than expected U.S. data reignited speculation that the Fed will raise interest rates before the end of the year. Interest rate futures are currently pricing in a 45% chance of a rate hike by December, compared with less than 20% a week ago and up from 9% at the start of this month.
The U.S. central bank is not expected to take action on interest rates at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, as policymakers wait for the dust to settle from Britain's decision to leave the EU. But market players will scrutinize the Fed's policy statement for fresh guidance on the pace of interest rate hikes over the next several months.

Gold is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates. A gradual path to higher rates is seen as less of a threat to gold prices than a swift series of increases.

The US Dollar boosted by the diverging monetary policy outlook between the Fed and other global central banks. A stronger U.S. dollar usually weighs on gold, as it dampens the metal's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies. The yellow metal remained supported amid speculation central banks in Europe and Asia will step up monetary stimulus in the next few months to counteract the negative economic shock from the Brexit vote. Gold is up almost 25% for the year to date, boosted by concerns over global growth and expectations of monetary stimulus. Expectations of monetary stimulus tend to benefit gold, as the metal is seen as a safe store of value and inflation hedge. Prices surged to a more than two-year high of $1,377.50 earlier in July, as concerns surrounding global growth in wake of Britain’s vote to exit the European Union sent investors flooding into safe haven assets.






Gold



Support at 30600---30450 and Resistance at 30900---31150

Still trend looks weak and could test 30600---30450. Further downside panic will see only close below 30450 mark else it could test its resistance level of 30900---31150 again

Further upside rally will see only close above 31150 mark

Trade with levels only


Silver


Support at 45800---45500 and Resistance at 47000

Looks weak and could test 45800---45500 mark. Further downside panic will see only close below 45500 mark else it could test its resistance level of 47000 again

Further upside rally will see only close above 47000 mark

Trade with levels only


Copper


Support at 330 and Resistance at 340

Either side break or close with volume will decide further... Till then traders can trade in a range with strict stop loss and wait for confirmation

Anything seems will update via SMS






















More will update soon...

Currency Outlook for weekending 29 July 2016






Dollar/Rupee August Future (LTP: 67.47)


 Sell around 67.35-67.45 Target 67.00-66.85 Stop loss above 67.70

Dollar/Rupee settled at 67.1125 compare to previous week close of 67.1625. Pair retraced from the weekly high 67.2950 after the European Central Bank kept its monetary policy unchanged as expected. 

However, downside move remained limited as dollar demand from oil importers for their month-end payment were negated impact of the policy. 

Technically, Sell strategy given around 67.25-67.20 was initiated, but pair yet to test first predicted level of 66.95. 

 Weekly price action resulted in formation of high wave candle stick which indicating for indecisive or trend reversal in  USDINR, however sustain trade below  23.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 21 Feb 2016 – 17 April 2016 is yet indicating for continuation of recent bearish trend. 

Hence, any rises towards 67.35-67.45 expect to attract near term selling activities. Further, massive resistance likely to seen at 67.75 and a break above only will expect to test 68.00-68.25



Dollar Index 


Dollar index gained more than 0.80% last week and settled at 97.41 compare to previous close of 96.56. This week, central bank meetings in U.S and Japan will determine dollar index trend.  US Federal Open Market Committee is due to start a two-day monetary policy meeting on July 26, with the market expecting the Fed to keep monetary policy steady which could have neutral to negative impact on dollar. 

Technically, On the EOD chart, short term consolidation in a range between 96.86 and 95.50 levels has formed a bullish pennant pattern and a break out at 97.10 is indicating for the bullish rally towards its first immediate resistance 98.50, after that sustain trade above this level probability could arise for the next level of 99.86 levels that will coincide with its previous swing high.

 On the other hand, sustain trade below 95.30 will create probability for correction towards 94.65-94.20.



EUR-INR August Future

Sell around 74.80-75.00 Target 74.20-73.80. Stop loss above 75.35 (LTP: 74.43)


EUR-INR reacted neutral on European Central bank July policy which held on 21 July 2016. The policy maker kept its monetary policy unchanged since Brexit from European Union but signaled it was open to easing policy in the coming month.  ECB President Mario Draghi said it was too early to determine the economic fallout of the UK referendum, and stressed that financial markets had shown "encouraging resilience.

 Technically, a breakdown of descending triangle pattern is indicating for bearishness in EURINR, and any rise towards 74.90-75.00 is expected to attract huge selling activities. 

On the upside, massive resistance is seen at 75.50 and break above is expect to show positive move towards 76.10-76.50 again.




GBP-INR August Future (LTP: 88.37)

Sell around 89.70-89.80 Target 89.00-88.20 stop loss above 90.10

GBPINR retraced from the weekly high 89.30 and tested 88.0850 before closing at 88.37 and settled with a loss of 0.25%.  Sterling plunged after the release of a lower than expected retail sales of June and private sector activity which stood at the steepest pace since early 2009 which added to concerns over the outlook for Britain’s growth following the country’s decision to leave the European Union.

Technically, near term trend is expected to remain bearish following to failure of trend reversal candle stick formation. Further, since last three week GBPINR struggling to break above its immediate resistance 23.8% Fibonacci Retracement which also creating probability for bearishness in near term.




JPY-INR August Future (LTP: 63.64)

Sell below 63.50 Target 62.70-62.00 Stop loss above 63.85.

JPY-INR extended its fall for second consecutive week and settled at 63.27. Pair dropped towards 63.1650 after Bank of Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reduced expectations that the central bank could resort to an aggressive form of stimulus known as "helicopter money.

 On Thursday, pair rebounded towards 63.78 after talks of possible arrangement by the Japanese government for an economic stimulus of about 20 trillion yen or $187 billion.

 Technically, sell strategy given below 63.52 was initiated but pair failed to test target 62.40 as it rebounded from the low of 62.7075.   

Weekly price action resulted in formation high wave candle stick which is indicating for indecisive trend, and JPYINR would need to trade below 63.50 in order to test 62.50-62.00. Further, Bank of Japan policy meeting will determine Japanese yen short term trend.





High Impact Economic Data & Events Schedule during the week



Date
Time
Currency
Economic Indicators
Forecast
Previous
Impact
25.07.16
 1:30pm
EUR
German Ifo Business Climate
107.7
108.7
Negative
26.07.16
7:30pm
USD
CB Consumer Confidence
95.6
98
Negative
27.07.16
2:00pm
GBP
Prelim GDP q/q
0.50%
0.40%
Positive

6:00pm
USD
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
0.30%
-0.30%
Positive

11:30pm
USD
FOMC Statement
-
-
-


USD
Federal Funds Rate
<0.50%
<0.50%
Neutral
28.07.16
6:00pm
USD
Unemployment Claims
261K
253K
Negative
29.07.16
Tentative
JPY
Monetary Policy Statement
-
-
-

10:30am
JPY
BOJ Outlook Report
-
-
-

Tentative
JPY
BOJ Press Conference
-
-
-

6:00pm
USD
Advance GDP q/q
2.60%
1.10%
Positive
30.07.16
1:30am
EUR
EBA Bank Stress Test Results
-
-
-




More will Update soon..