Thursday, 29 September 2016

Dollar/Rupee opens at 3-week low on likely FII inflows into local stocks



Dollar/Rupee opens at 3-week low on likely FII inflows into local stocks



Dollar/rupee opened slightly down on likely overseas fund inflows into local shares as investors risk appetite increased after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to limit production.

Meanwhile, Indian shares opened higher tracking firm Asian equities and as crude oil prices climbed to three-week high after OPEC members agreed to cut production for the first time since 2008.

Among global peers, Asian stocks rose in early trade following the decision by OPEC to freeze output which pushed crude oil to three-week high on Wednesday.

Markets were taken aback by the oil-output deal, with Saudi Arabia and Iran wrong-footing traders who had expected a continuation of the pump-at-will policy the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries adopted in 2014. OPEC agreed to trim production to a range of 32.5 million to 33 million barrels per day following an informal meeting in Algiers.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen told lawmakers that the majority of the central bank's policy-setting group sees an interest-rate increase as likely this year, while Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said an extended period of low borrowing costs will leave less room to navigate future economic shocks.

Yellen is scheduled to speak again on Thursday, as are regional Fed chiefs for Atlanta, Minneapolis and Philadelphia.



Technical,

USD-INR October Future

 USDINR traded in between 66.70-66.80 small range and settled at 66.7750 levels.  Near term trend expect to remain bearish in the pair following to breakdown of falling wedge on the EOD chart. 


On the upside, strong resistance is seen at 67.25 on closing basis and sustain trade above only will expect to test 67.65.

In Near term, every rise towards 67.00-67.10 may give opportunity to sell USDINR with stop loss 67.25. Target would be 66.85-66.65.


EUR-INR October Future 

 - After hitting a low of 75.7525 EURINR tested 75.00 and settled at 74.9450 levels.  Intraday price action resulted in formation of hammer candle stick which is indicating for trend reversal in EURINR. 

Further, pair would need to trade above 75.10 in order to test 75.55-75.75, else failure of the break only could result downside move towards 74.85-74.65.



GBP-INR October Future

- GBPINR turned bullish and tested 87.1350 before closing at 87.0725 levels. A long bullish candle stick formation on EOD chart is creating probability for the upside move towards 87.35-87.55 levels. 

On the downside, crucial support is seen at 86.70 and pair would need to trade below it in order to test 86.35-86.00.



JPY-INR October Future

- JPYINR continued to trade above its support line and settled at 66.30 levels. On the EOD chart pair taking support of 50% Fibonacci Retracement of its previous rally which creating probability for momentum gains towards 66.80-67.10 again.   

On the downside, crucial support likely to seen at 66.20 and correction is expect to come below this level target would be 65.76-65.50.



§  Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today

Time
Currency
Economic Indicators
Forecast
Previous
Possible Impact
4:45am
USD
FOMC Member George Speaks
-
-
-
5:20am
JPY
Retail Sales y/y
-1.70%
-0.20%
Negative
All Day
EUR
German Prelim CPI m/m
0.00%
0.00%
Neutral
12:05pm
JPY
BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
-
-
-
12:30pm
EUR
Spanish Flash CPI y/y
0.10%
-0.10%
Positive
1:25pm
EUR
German Unemployment Change
-5K
-7K
Negative
2:00pm
GBP
Net Lending to Individuals m/m
4.0B
3.8B
Positive

GBP
M4 Money Supply m/m
0.80%
1.20%
Negative

GBP
Mortgage Approvals
60K
61K
Positive
Tentative
EUR
Italian 10-y Bond Auction
-
1.14|1.4
-
6:00pm
USD
Final GDP q/q
1.30%
1.10%
Positive

USD
Unemployment Claims
260K
252K
Negative

USD
Final GDP Price Index q/q
2.30%
2.30%
Neutral

USD
Goods Trade Balance
-62.6B
-58.8B
Negative
6:30pm
GBP
MPC Member Forbes Speaks
-
-
-
7:30pm
USD
FOMC Member Powell Speaks
-
-
-

USD
Pending Home Sales m/m
-0.10%
1.30%
Negative



More will Update soon..